paul ryan's political life. but predictions as to which version of the paul ryan will show up remain nearly impossible. just as mitt romney's staff wiped their hard drives after leaving the massachusetts's governor's office romney has done the saipe thing to his running mate's motherboard, reset to factory settings. this was the original model -- >> specifically, on spending, our budget spends $4.8 trillion less than the majority's budget. today we would have to set aside $56 trillion invested at treasury rates to make sure the programs are solvent. we're going to start bit cutting $6.2 trillion in spending. >> but at a product demo august 11 th rhine version 2.0 was foud to be significantly altered. >> he's the next vice president of the united states. >> look right here.

>> just three days later, paul ryan suddenly had fewer numbers and fewer answers. >> the budget plan that you're now supporting would get to balance when? >> well, there are different -- the budget plan that mitt romney is supporting gets us down to 20% of gdp government spending by 2016. >> i get that but what about balance? >> i don't know exactly when it balances because we haven't -- i only -- i don't want to get wonky but we haven't run the numbers on that specific plan. >> since the romney upgrade the ryan model has been buggy. >> doesn't your budget also cop template major savings for medicare on something like the same amount? >> only president obama raids $716 billion from the medicare program, he cut $716 from the medicare program to pay for obama care. >> right. >> we don't do that. >> you make savings, how much? >> point -- we -- i joined the romney ticket and what mitt romney is proposing to do is repeal all of obama care. >> more than a month later,

rhine's quant programs are in need of a software update. >> how much in its revenue neutral. >> we'll get to the deductions but the cut in tax rates. >> the cut in tax rates is lower all americans' tax rates. >> how much does it cost? >> revenue neutral. >> it's not revenue neutral unless you take away deductions. >> that's where i'm going. >> we're going to get to that. >> lowering tax rates broadening the tax base works you -- >> you haven't given me the math. >> i don't have the -- it would take me too long to go through all of the math. >> worse still, the public has begun to notice. >> where are the answers? i mean, why aren't you more specific? i heard you was it sunday when you were on fox and you didn't answer his question about how we're going to, you know, what are your plans. >> so has the romney upgrade resulted in a paul ryan

downgrade? in the new issue of "time" magazine, michael crowley writes once famous for long policy sem seminars ryan steered clear of specifics where sarah palin went rogue, rhine has gone vague. phil, gop strategist extraordinaire has paul ryan gone vague and if he is vague how does that play out on the debate stage? >> what a setup. thank you for lowering expectations for congressman ryan in the debate. >> you're welcome. you're welcome. >> look, tonight's going to be about a fuld choice, i think mitt romney did a very good job in the first act laying out a lot of specific ideas about his plans that frankly peep hadn't had a chance to see in an unfiltered way. this is paul ryan's night to do the same thing, paint a difficult investigation around taxes, fiscal cliff, growth, urn certainty in the economy. debates are a great way to tease out issues in specific. i think if the debate revolves

around a look over the shoulder, that's probably a losing proposition for the democrats, if it involves a fooshd lorwardg program it's going to provide a robust -- >> you think paul ryan's got unprecedented mastery of fact and he's been studying diligently for the debate and i expect he'll come prepared to answer any question that's thrown at him. it's also not, you know, he is -- he is an ambassador and a component of the romney ticket. and he will be advancing the governor's vision in contrasting that with the president's track record of failed policies and results. >> can i jump? you used the word specifics. i want to ask a specific question about the specifics that you heard at the last deba debate. does governor romney specifically embrace simpson-bowles or does he not? he gave us both answers in the last debate. what is your understanding of the governor's approach, he's a presidential candidate, to simpson-bowles? yes or no. >> the governor's approach to simpson-bowles it's a step in the right direction, right. >> but he has his own plan and

his own plan would, you know, does not involve some of the components of simpson bowls. as it relates to that, you know, on that issue, he's been pretty clear. he's got his own plan -- >> he hasn't been clear. >> okay. time-out. mitt romney did one thing that everybody acknowledges, even though in his own party, which is pivot further towards the center. paul ryan's budget has been declared by some folks, some analysts, including those in the republican party, to be a fairly strong document win that takes specific stances on the american social compact. do you think paul ryan will be defending mitt romney's moderate position tonight or mitt romney's previously severely conservative position of the campaign trail? >> he'll be presenting people with a hard truth that we face as a country, which is that we can't continue to do what we've been doing all along. as it relates to tackling entitlements and talking about hard choices and the two directions the different

administrations would go i expect him to be very specific about that. i think if the gauge is a specific o-meter on the issues paul ryan is in a very good position to prosecutor that. richard, with all due respect, before you prosecute me, why don't we watch the debate tonight? >> i like the like the idea of a specific-o-meter and wish there was one on stage. paul ryan, in michael crowley's "time" magazine story, which features some of the finest photography in the modern era, which is paul ryan working out, i don't know if we have these photos in terms of developing a picture of the man, he's in very good shape. these were taken in december. >> very good shape. >> december of 2011. look at that. that's not unimpressive. those are in michael crowley's piece in "time" magazine as are these astute observations which is what few predicted was ryan's skill as a campaigner, he's a kind of boy wonder as election day approaches new reality has begun to emerge. ryan may have been a smart pick

for romney despite his policy positions, not because of they'll. which is to say, he's been pretty good on the stump, in terms of ginning up enthusiasm. the policy stuff may have been his achille's heel and the campaign stuff a bonus. >> ginning up enthusiasm among republicans, probably -- i don't see where the enthusiasm is for him among independents in the body politic overall. i mean the policy positions he's taken, you know, god love him, at least there's someone in washington who is going to put really hard, specific policy prescriptions on the table, the problem, though, is that they're incredibly unpopular. we've gone from the road map for america's future foote of prosperity to the house budget that the budget that the house passed that they're now all running away from because they now know that the american people don't like the policy

prescriptions are there. ryan is young, in great shape, very smart. but when people talk about the specifics and what his vision is, they're not going to like it and that's why tonight is fascinating because you know, if the first debate as paul said was, you know, the issues and specifics and richard says, you know, let's talk about the specifics of the specifics, i'm curious to see how is paul ryan going to defend -- defend himself and what he believes and defend mitt romney when it's paul ryan who is the one who actually got specifics on the table and it's -- did i say paul ryan? >> yes. >> paul ryan or mitt romney's position which you know we don't know what they are from hour to hour, let alone day to day. >> they seem to have changed a lot in recent days. one of the more sort of incendiary pivots, shall i say, is on the abortion question. >> right.

>> you've been covering this. paul ryan has some controversial positions as far as women's reproductive rights he co-sponsored the bill with todd akin which narrowed the definition of rape. i bet joe biden is going to pick a couple of things from the quiver to go at ryan with one is the medicare issue, appealing to seniors and the other is going to be with women. >> sure. you saw that yesterday, i think abortion was the story of the day. and i think they're going to carry that on today. i think what you're going to see mini mitt, what's described to me by the romney campaign, that's his nickname, mini mitt. you'll see him talk about the positions, not his positions before he was picked as the nominee, but mitt's position all night. that's the focus. you're not going to see a conversation paul ryan. >> phil, david says, conditions are told, this is veep candidates talk up your running mate, zing your opponent but avoid letting your career or policy ideas barack obama become the focus on the biggest life of the political life it's not

about you. that said, when ryan was picked, those who didn't agree with pick said this guy has years of a congressional record, congressional approval rating is in the basement. there's a lot for joe biden to go at paul ryan on. >> and there's a lot for paul ryan to go at joe biden on. so there's four years of failed administration policy for ryan to litigate against president obama and joe biden. so i think if the question is, is there material for examination tonight in kentucky, absolutely there is. and do those issues that you raise, are they likely to come up? absolutely. but what amie said is absolutely correct. you'll see the congressman articulate governor romney's positions on how to get the economy growing, how to jump start, you know, the economy and provide jobs, and be very focused on that. if the attacks come from the left and from biden all night on issues that are over the stern, they are looking backward. it doesn't seem to be synergistic with forward looking

campaign. >> four years, backwards looking if that is what they do -- >> what's the plan for the future or medicare? >> fair enough. >> what's the plan for social security? the obama plan is to do nothing. >> there's something to be said about the fact people know what the president and vice president have been doing, there's more public attention on the oval office, the economy. in terms of paul ryan, one of most telling parts of the aiken controversy people realize what congress had been doing in the last two to four years. his record, paul ryan's record is much i think more of a mystery than, say the president's record, as far as the american public. >> that's the challenge, the challengers have all the time. they have to be known by voters who don't know anything about them. the mystery of the paul ryan pick is that if you come in at a time in washington is so deeply unpopular and say i'm the reform guy, right? i've never been in washington, mitt romney's never been elected to washington office, and i'm the cleanup guy, i've got all of this business experience, the

logical choice would have been choose someone who wasn't from washington. >> rob portman. >> the washington package, didn't have a voting record, hadn't sponsored curious bills people didn't know about and finding out they don't agree with, the other thing is if you run a campaign that's short on specifics, that doesn't want to tell you what deductions you're going to take out, don't want to put out the whole budget there because you think that actually there are all sorts of things that are really unpopular, if you want to be unspecific, no matter what you talk about in terms of the specifics, then don't choose someone who has put out reams and reams of paper of numbers because then you are forcing them to run away from every detail ever put out there. paul ryan -- >> he likes the idea of i specific-o-meter. maybe the gop's coming around. the big face offstarts 9:00 eastern tonight with prime time coverage 5:00 p.m. all right here on a channel called msnbc. after the break, evening joe, vice president biden brings his

extensive political resume and populism to kentucky but also brings his well-documented propensity for gaffes. remember biden's last national television interview? >> with what this is all about a simple proposition, who do you love? what all marriages, whether they're marriages of lesbians or gay men or heterosexuals. i am absolutely comfortable with the fact that men marrying men, women marrying women and heterosexual men and women marrying another are entitled to the same exact rights. >> god love him. will we see that joe biden tonight? we'll troll for potential land mines next on "now." no, no, no, stop! humans -- one day, we're coming up with the theory of relativity, the next...

stop, stop, stop! my car! not so much. but that's okay. you're covered with great ideas like optional better car replacement from liberty mutual insurance. total your car, and we give you the money to buy one a model year newer. learn about it at libertymutual.com. liberty mutual insurance. responsibility -- what's your policy?

with polls showing a boomlet, team obama is putting its faith in joe bide tonight reverse the momentum or stan. the bleed in matchup against paul ryan. reflecting on his performance, president obama was contrite, suggesting he had been too much of a gentleman. >> the debate, i think, it's fair to say, i was too polite because, you know, it's hard to sometimes just keep on saying, what you're saying isn't true. it gets repetitive. governor romney had a good flight. i had a bad night. >> how bad? >> well, it's not the first time i've had a bad night, but i think what's important is that the fundamentals of what this race is about haven't changed. >> is it possible you handed him the election that night? >> no.

>> you're going to win? >> yes. >> don't expect joe biden to make the same mistake. the campaign says the veep will come out forcefully against the romney/ryan record and address the quote dishonesties pedalled last week. offering advice for number two the president said -- >> tomorrow night? >> well, i -- you know, i think joe needs to be joe. >> for what it's worth, the president is probably hoping that joe isn't the same joe who occasionally suffers from bouts of acute honesty on a variety of topics like gay marriage. >> he got out a little bit over his skis, but out of generosity, spirit. >> joining us now from chicago, national press secretary for the obama campaign, ben "the thunder" labolt. >> new nickname every time. thanks for having me. >> thunder bolt or thunder. there's not that much setting nicknames aside, there's been talk of nunchakus brought on stage, a lot of expectations

about justice how agretsive vice president joe biden will be. has president obama spoken to the veep and offered any sage words of advice? >> well, you heard it right there in the interview, i think the vice president's goal will be the same as the president's was last week to lay out the economic choice for the middle class in this election. but what he will do is try to correct the brazen attempt that the romney/ryan ticket to rewrite and hide their position. you saw "the new york times" reported the romney campaign saw on focus groups what voters liked about the debate they didn't hear about the positions that governor romney and congressman ryan had been taking for the past year and a half so they're not going to talk about them and they're going to try to soften the edges. the premise, the economic premise of their candidacy was $5 trillion tax cuts for the wealthiest americans but last week on stage mitt romney didn't know anything about that. and so congressman ryan has a history here, you saw him during the convention trying to blame the president for the closure of a gm plant that was slated for

closure during the previous administration, you played a clip of him attacking the same medicare savings that he preserved in his budget and i think the vice president will be prepared to call him out tonight. >> so you're not telling me, ben, whether the president has called the vice president and said, dude, we're down at the second quarter do not mess this up, has there been any back and forth between the two men? >> i -- the president and the vice president have talked, as you know, they see each other every week. but i don't have any internal intelligence on that conversation. ultimately, you know what this campaign is. it's about building the economy from the middle class out or the top-down. the vice president's not going to let congressman ryan run away from those positions. congressman ryan is the intellectual leader of the republican party according to mitt romney, mitt romney says he's introduced a marvelous budget plan and he's embraced it. so will hold congressman wry tonight account for that tonight. look into the eyes of the audience and tell them what the

implications of his budget plan are, 20% cuts for education and research and development and manufacturing, all areas where we're investing and we believe that that will create good paying jobs for the middle class. >> ben, fair enough, the -- it's worth noting, though, two thing. one is the latest quinnipiac poll shows, the president having strong leadership qualities 67% to 54%. i have to bring up the libya question. that would seem to play directly to this. the white house has had quite a mess on its hands in terms of the back and forth over what happened around the assassination of embassy chris stevens. it is highly likely that paul ryan will bring that up. how much of a liability is this for the white house? >> well, the president has had two priorities with regard to this incident. the first is to secure the american personnel in the region, to secure our embassies and diplomatic posts, reach out to leaders in the region and ensure they are meeting their security obligations and condemning the violence. the second is to get to the

bottom of what happened to find the perpetrators of the violence and to bring them to justice. and you've seen governor romney weigh in without a full set of facts, as he often does on foreign policy. you hear a lot of chest thumping from him but not specifics. he hasn't rolled out a plan for america's relation with the middle east or north africa. in fact he took multiple positions on whether we should join that multinational coalition that took action in libya in the first place. so, ultimately that's just empty chest thumping from mitt romney. >> richard, i want to ask you, in terms of the empty chest thufr thumping i was less inpressed about mitt romney's foreign policy speech. the back and forth, the states department giving messages counter to what rice side, this is a weak point and one that could be exploited by republicans against the democrats going into november. >> well, i do think that since

dan senor is a topped a adviser to paul ryan i expect them to bring up the middle east. the question here is, what do you understand happened in the immediate aftermath because we're talking about initial reports. clearly, governor romney was kind of confused in his first responses, too, and his first response to the cameras wasn't successful. hasn't been held through in terms of his tone or attitude afterwards. susan rice speaking soon after the event and it was incredibly messy situation. but more concretely about the whole arab spring and the whole approach there, what would you do differently? are they really proposing full-scale war in syria? no, they want something to be different but they cannot really articulate what that would be. in libya, they took a different approach in getting involved in the first place, governor romney thought that would be mission creep. it comes down to specifics. foreign policy what risks are you prepared to take? what are you on national security priorities?

that's your world view and governor romney said this week this is about liberty and tyranny. it's more complicated than the good guys and the bad guys. >> the other thing, phil, optic cali, biden can name drop brez nerve, served as chair of the foreign relations committee, he's been on the national and international stage. paul ryan is very new to the game and in that sense, when you're thinking about who you sort of trust as commander in chief or trust to be emissary for the united states and international and global community it's tougher for paul ryan. >> the benchmark for that is high, no question joe biden's been in 18 debates run for president twice, the point you make is legitimate. there's probably no one who is more dextrous, knowledgeable, we have senator mccain, that has the international experience that joe biden has. he's coming at this from a position not only factual but

historical strength. that said this is about a philosophy and world view of america's role in world and congressman ryan, to your point, has been i know focused on these issues and i expect he'll come to the debate ready to discuss them in a clear and compelling way. so that will be one of the key things to watch tonight. >> i think what they want to do is go for the jugular, the romney campaign. this is something that the obama administration mass been promoting they killed bin laden, they're strong on national security and foreign policy, and this is something that they want to make seem weak on the other side. and i think that's what you're going to see. >> ben, to the questions of benghazi and syria, how much do you think that the vice president biden is going to bring that up willfully on his own accord? >> there will be a discussion of foreign policy. this is the president who promised to end the war in iraq in a responsible way, refocus on al qaeda, develop a plan to end the war in afghanistan and restore alliances around the world. we've made a lot of progress on those fronts.

in terms of terrorism, you know mitt romney hasn't talked about al qaeda or rolled out a plan counterterrorism plan in his previous speeches. he's called russia our number one foe. during the last campaign he made clear if the pakistanis were harboring terrorist his wouldn't make a decision to go into pakistan after them. so we're happy to engage the romney/ryan ticket in that conversation. >> from obama hed headquarters, ben "the thunder" labolt. >> i want to know if the thunder's coming tonight or the cannonball or what. >> you never know. ben, thank you for your time. >> we'll see. >> thank you for your time as always. the latest round of presidential polls shows a tightening race but can a contest be close and yet not comprehensive at the same time? we will try to decipher numbers ahead on "now." mom always got good nutrition to taste great.

she was a picky eater. well, now i'm her dietitian, and last year, she wasn't eating so well. so i recommended boost complete nutritional drink to help her get the nutrition she was missing. and now she drinks it every day. well, it tastes great! [ male announcer ] boost has 26 essential vitamins and minerals, including calcium and vitamin d to support strong bones, and 10 grams of protein to help maintain muscle. all with a delicious taste. [ dietitian ] now, nothing keeps mom from doing what she loves -- being my mom. [ male announcer ] stay strong, stay active with boost. i've got a nice long life ahead. big plans. so when i found out medicare doesn't pay all my medical expenses, i looked at my options. then i got a medicare supplement insurance plan. [ male announcer ] if you're eligible for medicare, you may know it only covers about 80% of your part b medical expenses. the rest is up to you. call now and find out about an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company.

like all standardized medicare supplement plans, it helps pick up some of what medicare doesn't pay. and could save you thousands in out-of-pocket costs. to me, relationships matter. i've been with my doctor for 12 years. now i know i'll be able to stick with him. [ male announcer ] with these types of plans, you'll be able to visit any doctor or hospital that accepts medicare patients. plus, there are no networks, and you never need a referral to see a specialist. so don't wait. call now and request this free decision guide to help you better understand medicare... and which aarp medicare supplement plan might be best for you. there's a wide range to choose from. we love to travel -- and there's so much more to see. so we found a plan that can travel with us. anywhere in the country. [ male announcer ] join the millions of people who have already enrolled in the only medicare supplement insurance plans endorsed by aarp, an organization serving the needs of people 50 and over

for generations. remember, all medicare supplement insurance plans help cover what medicare doesn't pay. and could save you thousands a year in out-of-pocket costs. call now to request your free decision guide. and learn more about the kinds of plans that will be here for you now -- and down the road. i have a lifetime of experience. so i know how important that is. oh, hey alex. just picking up some, brochures, posters copies of my acceptance speech. great! it's always good to have a backup plan, in case i get hit by a meteor. wow, your hair looks great. didn't realize they did photoshop here. hey, good call on those mugs. can't let 'em see what you're drinking. you know, i'm glad we're both running a nice, clean race. no need to get nasty. here's your "honk if you had an affair with taylor" yard sign. looks good. [ male announcer ] fedex office. now save 50% on banners.

there's poll fever affecting the political class this election cycle and the only prescription according to the daly show is -- >> i think we all know what we need. nerds! >> when you see obama gaining in today's gallup tracking poll that means that obama's interviews yesterday were better than those from seven days ago, which were conducted before the debate. >> went from three ahead in the seven-day track yesterday to five ahead in their track today. >> if the next round of swing state polls from nbc/marist polls show the swing states tide democrats really will be appropriate for them to panic. >> we will channel our inner steve cokornacki and try to sif

through the data when stu rothenberg joins us. [ female announcer ] most whitening strips promise full whitening results in two weeks or more. rembrandt® deeply white™ 2 hour whitening kit is proven to quickly remove surface stains and deep stains in just two hours. [ female announcer ] rembrandt® deeply white™: whiten in just 2 hours.

inspiration. great power. iconic design. exhilarating performance. [ race announcer ] audi once again has created le mans history! [ male announcer ] and once in a great while... all of the above.

take your seat in the incomparable audi a8. the highest-ranked vehicle appeal among large premium cars by j.d. power and associates. ♪ a new batch of swing state polls out today shows tightening race following last week's debate. according to an nbc news/"wall street journal"/marist survey they are tied in virginia and florida but the president maintains a slight lead in ohio. according to the obama campaign, it's all nbd, no big deal. >> look what's happening in ohio, little movement. in florida, little movement. virginia, there's been modest movement. but the race is essentially the same as where it was, if not before the debates, than before the convention. >> was the debate a contest modifier, game changer? in florida, ohio, and virginia,

more than 90% of those surveyed said they made up their minds before governor romney's successful debate performance last week. for team romney, that's nea, not exactly awesome. according to nbc news, those states plus colorado, nevada, new hampshire, north carolina, and wisconsin, are the battleground that will will determine the election. the one that matters the most for romney, the buckeye state. surprising exactly no one, romney has basically set up residence in the state. yesterday the campaign made three stops in ohio, and before the end of the week, romney and ryan will hold at least another four events. joining us from washington, stu rothenberg editor and publisher of the rothenberg political report and columnist for "roll call." great to have you on the program. >> my pleasure. >> for my first question, in terms of making sense of these polls, is it possible for the race to be tight, but also not competitive? >> it's possible for some races to be that way. i wrote recently about a

congressional race in florida where the electorate was so polarized and majority of the voters are simply won't vote for one of the candidates, that yeah i expect that kind of race to be very tight. but i think i know who's going to win. it's a little different situation in this presidential race. the race has certainly tightened. and think, yeah, the debate did create a very different political environment. look, for three weeks, mitt romney got hammered from the democratic debate through the talk about the 47%, his taxes, and the like. and with a bad debate performance. if the president won the first presidential debate, clearly, i think the presidential race would have been all but over. but the debate has changed the narrative, the discussion, and moved some poll numbers, and i grant you, this is not a dramatic change, but it is an important change though it's small, i think the race is very, very competitive once again. >> jonathan capehart, i want to bring you in on this.

karl rove writing in the "wall street journal" today, how biggen big biggen an impact did mitt romney's debate have. huge, romney not only won the night but changed the arc of the election and perhaps its outcome. what do you make of that? look at skeptical face. >> sure, mitt romney had a fantastic night in the debate last week. he got a bounce out of. but as richard and i were talking about during the break that bounce is disappearing. i mean as stephanie cutter said in the clip that you showed the race is back to where it was before the debate, if not before the conventions. this has been and will continue to be until election day a very close race. and what karl rove is doing there is trying to -- phil i'm sure you'll correct me -- is to rah rah the troops on the republican say saying mitt romney's back and he'll take this as a result of one 90-minute debate after weeks, if not months, of a really horrible campaign. >> i'm sorry, guys i think you're denying reality here.

i tweeted the night of the debate that this changed the arc of the election and i agree completely. >> you tweeted that too. >> i tweeted that in the middle of two-thirds of the debate and i believe it. and we've seen it. we've seen it in a couple of key things. this is underreported. it guaranteed the financial success sof tof the romney camp. mitt romney will have the ability to prosecute this financially as a result of the debate. it established key momentum. we see that in metrics around polling, we've seen growth within independents, white men, younger voters, rural voters specific to the swing states and we've seen significant movement in all of the areas. on the ground intensity, you guys have seen it too. crowd sizes doubled. people lining up for victory offices in florida and last thursday, friday, saturday over the weekend made more contacts, more tv, this is -- that was a game changing event. tonight can be an extension of that. that's the significant. >> maybe we're confusing arc of

the election with outcome of the election, right? >> alex, i've seen democrats who are upset about what has happened, they're panicked. i have talked to a couple of donors they called chicago upset what's go on. it has changed it a bit. >> stewart, i would like to go back to you on this. i'm not convinced it a bad thing for democrats to be worried and think this is race is closer than has been. in terms of the enthusiasm question it's always been a problem for the incumbent. the numbers in ohio, since that is sort of ground zero for the elections, i was surprised that romney's favorables were not higher or there wasn't more of a change. the nbc news/marist poll october 3rd, romney, 42%, unfavorables 51%. now favorables are 44%, unfavorables 50%. that's within margin of error. effective i will no change, was surprising given the debate performance. >> the data are very clear,

national data and individual state level data that we're seeing. and there has been movement. the race has changed and it is much more competitive than it was ten days ago, much more competitive. now the movement in ohio, the romney movement has been weaker than it was nationally or in places like virginia, florida, or colorado. and i think part of that is the obama campaign did a very good job early on airing ads early, focusing on ohio and delivering a message and defining mitt romney. they did not do that as well in the other states and frankly some of the other states have a more fundamental republican bend. it's true, the early obama ads about romney defining him, his wealth, i think it worked. the romney folks have a longer way to go. i should point out, alex, that it is possible, i mean, our newsletter has the president at

269 electoral votes he needs one more for majority. we give him -- we have it as leaning obama, it's not as though he -- we have it as safe. we have it as leaning. it's possible actually for our count for romney to sweep, i think it's five toss-up states, colorado, florida, virginia, iowa, nevada and also get 269, and then there's a question whether the romney campaign can put wisconsin really in play. the president has a small lead, i don't know if it's two points, three, four, five, that would change the math, too. but we really have a contest here. will it fade? maybe, depends on the next news event. the next debate i guess. >> certainly the debate will factor into that. another piece of data from ohio, the direction of the country headed in right direction? 46% says yes. off on the wrong track, 50%. those are better for the administration if they're responsible for the direction where it was 43% to 52% october

3rd. d do you agree that's how strong the obama message has been in ohio? >> i don't think it's about the message. there's a bigger trend,en improving economy and that's showing through in statistics. you have the surface gain going on debates, ads, all of the rest of it. but the real driving force, i think both parties can agree, all along has been economic sentiment as economic sentiment improves the president's numbers do, he cracked 50% approving rating in ohio, that ties into his numbers. i don't think there's any question that polls have tightened, but eight years ago almost to the day, people, democrats, were saying exactly the same thing, you've just said after the first john kerry debate. numbers changed, everything was different. eight years ago to the day, the gallup poll had john kerry and president bush tied, exactly the same numbers, on registered voters, john kerry was one up among likely voters. the numbers are almost the same. you know what? you don't call the timing of the election. democrats might have wanted to

two weeks ago, republicans want it now. let's wait and see. the sweep of the debates, how the economy shapes up election day. if 2004 is any guide, two or three-point race and it may not feel that close for the losing side. >> can i ask a question of stewart? i azbrdegree with you 100%. just a quick question. would you agree that the three, two, one scenario, which is wonky for your audience. >> our audience is sophisticated. >> if romney can win back, indiana, north carolina, carry ohio and florida, win a handful of other states, nevada, colorado, new hampshire, a variety of others, do you agree that that's a plausible scenario today? because ten days ago, that was a written off scenario. is that a viable pathway for mitt romney today? >> i think ohio looks to be in play now, where a couple weeks ago it looked like it was falling out of play. but i think ohio remains a difficult -- a difficult hill to

climb for the romney campaign. look if they win ohio, they're probably going to win the white house. given where the other numbers, if they win ohio they'll have already won north carolina, virginia, florida, colorado, and they will win. so ohio's a good indicator there. but i don't think they absolutely have to win ohio. if they win ohio, the president's in big trouble. >> one last question. in terms of unemployment numbers and figures we got out on friday, how much do you think those are factoring into the polls? we are getting state by state unemployment numbers in a week i believe. how much do you think that's going to affect the ground game in swing states? >> i've been arguing for a year how important numbers are and the fact of the matter is the last two months of unemployment, new job numbers have been irrelevant. the numbers that came out the day after the obama speech at the democratic convention were terrible. 96,000 new jobs, hundreds of thousands of people left the labor market, the narrative was the terrible news on the job front, and it did not hurt the democratic bounce coming out of

the convention. the last numbers just recently, two days after the first presidential debate, the numbers were pretty good. 115,000 new jobs, revisions in the previous two job numbers up for additional jobs, unemployment rate down to 7.8. that should have been terrific news. that should have stamped on the trump -- what's the right word? >> temporary tattoos. >> stepped on -- >> temporary tattoos. >> stepped on the presidential debate, it didn't. so the last two months unemployment numbers haven't had an effect. i don't know, maybe people think the economy is whatever it is and they're using other news events to evaluate the candidates. >> thank you, stewart. somebody who knows data and is not afraid to say i don't know. coming up, remember when cycling star lance armstrong opted to give up his seven tour de france titles? now we know why. the details of an alleged doping

scheme that the government calls the most sophisticated the sport has ever seen. that's ahead on "now." [ male announcer ] it's simple physics... a body at rest tends to stay at rest... while a body in motion tends to stay in motion. staying active can actually ease arthritis symptoms. but if you have arthritis, staying active can be difficult. prescription celebrex can help relieve arthritis pain so your body can stay in motion. because just one 200mg celebrex a day can provide 24 hour relief for many with arthritis pain and inflammation. plus, in clinical studies, celebrex is proven to improve daily physical function so moving is easier. celebrex can be taken with or without food. and it's not a narcotic. you and your doctor should balance the benefits with the risks. all prescription nsaids, like celebrex, ibuprofen, naproxen, and meloxicam have the same cardiovascular warning.

they all may increase the chance of heart attack or stroke, which can lead to death. this chance increases if you have heart disease or risk factors such as high blood pressure or when nsaids are taken for long periods. nsaids, including celebrex, increase the chance of serious skin or allergic reactions or stomach and intestine problems, such as bleeding and ulcers, which can occur without warning and may cause death. patients also taking aspirin and the elderly are at increased risk for stomach bleeding and ulcers. do not take celebrex if you've had an asthma attack, hives, or other allergies to aspirin, nsaids or sulfonamides. get help right away if you have swelling of the face or throat, or trouble breathing. tell your doctor your medical history and find an arthritis treatment for you. visit celebrex.com and ask your doctor about celebrex. for a body in motion. and also to build my career. so i'm not about to always let my frequent bladder urges, or the worry my pipes might leak get in the way of my busy lifestyle. that's why i take care, with vesicare. once-daily vesicare can help control your bladder muscle

and is proven to treat overactive bladder with symptoms of frequent urges and leaks day and night. if you have certain stomach or glaucoma problems, or trouble emptying your bladder, do not take vesicare. vesicare may cause allergic reactions that may be serious. if you experience swelling of the face, lips, throat or tongue, stop taking vesicare and get emergency help. tell your doctor right away if you have severe abdominal pain, or become constipated for three or more days. vesicare may cause blurred vision, so use caution while driving or doing unsafe tasks. common side effects are dry mouth, constipation, and indigestion. i've worked hard to get to where i am... and i've got better places to go than always going to the bathroom. so take charge of your symptoms by talking to your doctor and go to vesicare.com for a free trial offer.

the ante has been upped in the contentious missouri senate race. incumbent claire mccaskill released a trio of new ads featuring rape victims to counter her opponent todd akin. why? here's why. >> it seems to me, first of all from what i understand from doctors that's rare. if it's i legitimate rape, the fema fee body has ways to shut that whole thing down. >> how the ads can change the race next in "what now?" [ man ] ring ring... progresso

this reduced sodium soup says it may help lower cholesterol, how does it work? you just have to eat it as part of your heart healthy diet. step 1. eat the soup. all those veggies and beans, that's what may help lower your cholesterol and -- well that's easy [ male announcer ] progresso. you gotta taste this soup.

or treat gas with these after you get it. now that's like sunblock before or sun burn cream later. oh, somebody out there's saying, now i get it! take beano before and there'll be no gas. take beano before syou know, i've helped a lot off people save a lot of money. but today...( sfx: loud noise of large metal object hitting the ground) things have been a little strange. (sfx: sound of piano smashing) roadrunner: meep meep. meep meep? (sfx: loud thud sound) what a strange place. geico®. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance.

welcome back. time for "what now?" a 200-page report details evidence that lance armstrong not only cheated during his career but bullied teammates into doing the same. jonathan capehart, you're a cycling enthusiast. have you ever ridden a bike? >> yes. >> this is 11 of armstrong's teammates were submitted sworn affidavits, armstrong's ex-wife handing out quart zone tablets wrapped in about foil, landis asked to baby-sit the blood in armstrong's refrigerator.

it's really bad. >> this is a conspiracy. breathtaking in its reach. i mean people who thought or a person who thought that he was so good, so talented, so revered that he could do whatever he damn well pleased with would get away with it and did for so long. >> this make like john edwards and rielle hunter look like child's play. the level of obfuscation and lying on international stage for years. >> think of the people who made him out tib her to be a hero an yellow bracelets. >> livestrong the charity is doing well and does important work and that way it's unfortunate that they're associated. but phil, institutional failure, too, people losing faith in congress, losing faith in this and that. when you have heroes like that, and this happens to them, it's just, you know, the 21st century will break your heart. >> it's true. >> that's well said. i don't know if i can add much

to that. the lack -- the loss of -- the loss of hope in heros and sflugs is one of the societal trends dispintiappointing about our cu. i don't know about the regulation of the cycling industry i read this on the plane, and it's -- it is troubling. the concept of refrigerating your blood for a month and then reinfusing it back into your veins is grim. >> i do that just for show performance but that's not illegal, as far as i know. the idea of baby-sitting blood in general is -- it's an icky thing. >> the sad -- look, i disagree with you about livestrong. they do great work. there's no reason why that cause and issues they talk about should not still progress. >> sure. >> even under the name live strong. but you know, the story about lance armstrong was that he was some kind of superhuman beater of cancer and his athletics were different and it turns out they weren't. >> they're worse, they're not the same. they're worse. thank you to phil, amie, jonathan and richard.

see you back here tomorrow noon eastern, when i'm joined by our own chris hayes, deputy city mayor, karen finney, ben smith and james lipton. find us at facebook.com/nowwithalex. "andrea mitchell reports" next live from danville, kentucky. you have to scrub it first. no you don't. yes, you do! don't! do! whoa, kitchen counselor here. see cascade complete pacs work like micro-scrubbing brushes to help power away tough foods even in corners and edges. hmm! cascade. love it or your money back.

right now on "andrea mitchell reports" -- the duel in danville. vice president joe biden landed in kentucky moments ago. >> ever see me rope a dope? >> congressman paul ryan is also getting ready. will he be able to build on mitt romney's momentum? right now, the former massachusetts governor is headed for north carolina as the latest polls show he i